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This Behind the Scenes article was provided to LiveScience in partnership with the National Science Foundation .
Scientists believe that our warming Earth may face ruinous changes to its natural environment , including droughts , rising sea and fiercer , more frequent hurricanes .
The eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980.
Theoretically , it may be necessary to act globally to mitigate the damage . ab initio , those effort will believably take the human body of limits on greenhouse gas emanation or wood preservation . But some scientists and policy - maker believe it might be necessary for scientists to take an active hand in organize a solution to our climate problems .
Those potential resolution , collectively address " geoengineering , " would expend scientist ' cognition of the Earth ’s cycles to curb the raise in temperature , the melting of the meth caps and increase weather volatility . Yet , very few study have tackled the hard-nosed implications of such extreme measures , in part because of the controversy surrounding the prospect of " mess up with " the surroundings .
" It ’s ground zero in good order now for sympathise the mood response to geoengineering , " saidCecilia Bitz , of the University of Washington . Bitz isone of a handful of research worker in the U.S. exploring the encroachment of geoengineering ideas . " There have only been a couple dozen papers in the literature , and you ’ll be surprised to know that it ’s a rarity to have an sea GCM [ general circulation model ] in the model . "
The eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980.
A volcanic theme
Bitz , working with University of Washington research worker Kelly McCusker and David Battisti the , study the impact of the leading geoengineering solution , the dismissal of volcanic aerosol into the upper ambience .
" The equivalent of Mount Pinatubo going off every year , " Bitz said , referring to the eruption in the Philippines in 1991 , the large in late memory board .
Time series of globally-averaged surface temperatures for various simulations. The green line shows that as a sulfate layer is ramped along with carbon dioxide, global mean temperature can be held close to 1990 values. Additionally, the orange line illustrates the rapid rise in temperature that occurs if geoengineering with a sulfate layer is terminated, but carbon dioxide levels are still high.
Using the NSF - supported Ranger supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center , their simulations explore a reach of spray can implementations , from steady to slowly increasing loss of the aerosols to a sudden cessation of bodily function , which could lead to hazardously speedy warming .
Regional implications
Though it may be potential to subjugate the atmospheric temperature , they found that other look of climate change , specifically the melting of the ice rink caps may be much more unmanageable to reverse .
In color is the annually averaged surface temperature over the planet, overlain with the change in winds at 850 millibars due to increased carbon dioxide and a stratospheric sulfate layer. The magnitude of these atmospheric circulation changes, especially over the Southern Ocean, is similar to that induced by just an increase in carbon dioxide.
" There are regional issues — there ’s still warm in the pole and subsurface ocean warming near chicken feed sheets , and there are hatful of terra incognita that we ca n’t resolve , " McCusker said .
There ’s is one of a smattering of computational geoengineering studies , and it help to determine how a drastic human - induced change might interrupt the Earth ’s environmental systems . The work follow up on other atmospheric studies by Bitz , including a recent publication inNaturethat suggests that nursery flatulence moderation can reduce ocean ice loss and increase polar bear natural selection .
The only planet we have
" We do n’t make out what society would take an unacceptable grade of climate modification , but it may pass off , and at that point there may be a need to geoengineer , " Bitz said .
The challenge of studying geoengineering is the deficiency of a suitable physical environment for experiment .
" We only have one planet , " said Alan Robock , a leading geoengineering researcher at Rutgers University . " meteorologist and climate scientist do not have laboratories with test tube or accelerators . And we can not mess up with the only planet we have to test its response to making stratospheric clouds or shiny pelagic clouds , so we use models of the clime organization — data processor simulations of how the climate would respond to these forcings . "
Bitz hopes the root that she ’s explore will never want to be tested . But , like an evacuation plan or a bomb protection , it is comfort to know that if solution are required , scientists have done the initial inquiry and have a sense of the potential outcomes .
Robock tell , " We may let on dangerous consequences we never thought of before . Or we may determine that particular geoengineering scenario reduce the risk of world warming more than the extra risk they show . This will allow us to make an informed decision some time in the future when we are faced with dangerous climate change . "
