The future is over ! It ’s no longer possible to publish about the futurity , becausethe Singularitywill definitely happen in twenty year . We ’ll have artificial word , and the meaning of humanity will be transformed . Is this idea hindering scientific discipline fable ?
We went to a Worldcon panel called “ The Singularity : Are We Getting Any Closer ? ” featuring Farthing authorJo Waltonand Julian Comstock / Spin authorRobert Charles Wilson . They talked a lot about the pitfalls and plausibility of the Singularity , the approximation that a drastic change in technology will lead in a world we can barely visualise , full of sentient machine and vastly improved length of service , among other thing .
Many people seem to cerebrate the Singularity is inevitable , observe Walton , but the control panel was aimed at questioning whether we ’re any closer to it now than whenVernor Vingepioneered itin his 1986 novel Marooned In Realtime .
For her part , Walton argue the Singularity is an interesting conception for science - fiction storytelling , but “ it is n’t die to find . It ’s a completely false conception [ and ] we ’ve made no genuine progress towards it . ” The idea is free-base on a false extrapolation , similar to suppose that since we could go 30 MPH 100 age ago , and 400 MPH 50 twelvemonth ago , now we should be traveling at the pep pill of light .
And because mass believe the Singularity is inevitable , some contend that you ca n’t write about the hereafter at all — since we ca n’t guess lifespan after the Singularity , it ’s almost unsufferable to spell about . Walton worries that this idea is the “ dirt in the punchbowl ” of time to come - set skill fiction .
Adds Walton : “ To be fair , Vinge has drop a line some excellent fable within that constraint [ of assuming the Singularity happens in 20 years ] , in the same way people indite sonnets — but a sonnet is not the only verse form you would want to write . ”
Wilson betoken out that if the uniqueness really is coming , then it ’s inevitable — so there ’s no motive for people to be cheerleaders for it . He compared it to “ telepathy or dianetics , ” science - fancied ideas which some people adopted “ with religious fervor . ” A substance motion in skill fable is “ where is our technology fail , and what can we do with it , ” noted Wilson . “ The Singularity is just one answer . ”
Panelist Christopher Carson pointed out that the science fiction section in bookshop lately consist of nothing but “ transhuman science fabrication or urban fantasy . ” mass tend to see the uniqueness get partially because equipment are becoming more complicated — but that ’s often an lesson of “ feature film creep , ” like the fact that your cellphone now has a legion of functions you do n’t infer and did n’t ask for . That ’s not really a sign of the zodiac of progress , because those extra function were designed by some selling someone somewhere , he pointed out .
The uniqueness is notoriously hard to define , but people often say that you could bestow Socrates frontwards in sentence and take him to Worldcon , and he would understand what it was about , more or less . But you could n’t take a goldfish to Worldcon and have it understand what was last on . A present - solar day homo , visiting a post - Singularity earthly concern , would be more like that goldfish than Socrates .
But Walton order this is a adulterate representative , because Socrates is an sinful model . A “ random Greek person ” from Socrates ’ era might have a much harder metre understand Worldcon .
“ The question I sometimes ask myself is , How would the uniqueness work in Darfur ? ” says Wilson .
And there was lots of talking about the potential downsides of start out the Internet in your head , complete with phishing , spam , malware and bad meme . Says Walton , the first 100,000 people who get the cyberspace in their heads , without any terrible , life - end mishaps , will have a really voiceless fourth dimension upgrading later on . “ suppose an outdated computer in your pass . ”
Crap futurismVernor VingeWorldcon
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