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China ’s space place , matter in at 9 tons ( 8,500 kilogram ) , is currently precipitate toward Earth , and those tracking the hefty load figure it will reenter our atmosphere some time between about March 30 and April 2 . So how unlucky would you have to be to get bonk on the principal with any Tiangong-1 second that survive the fiery dip ?
Turns out , pretty unluckly . The odds that any someone will get hit by falling Tiangong-1 debris in the region on Earth that are most at - peril for such a collision are about one million time smaller than the odds of get ahead the Powerball jackpot , according to the Aerospace Corporation , a non-profit-making corporation in California that advises military , civil and commercial quad operations . [ Gallery : Tiangong-1 , China ’s First Space Laboratory ]
The yellow bands are the riskiest places to be, but even there the odds of getting hit by space station debris are extremely low.
So if the betting odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are about one in 292 million , as has been reported , then carrying out the mathematics mean your odds of a ding from the space post debris are about one in 292 trillion .
China set in motion Tiangong-1 , the country ’s first space station , in September 2011 , primarily so taikonauts ( Formosan astronauts ) could taper the acquirement — such as docking ability — needed to build up a planned blank place in the 2020s , according to Space.com , a Live Science sister site .
Since then , Tiangong-1 has dutifully served its intent , docking with three spacecraft : Shenzhou-8 in November 2011 , Shenzhou-9 in June 2012 and Shenzhou-10 in June 2013,Space.com report . But China fall behind physical contact with the 34 - ft - long ( 10.3 meters ) blank space station in March 2016 , and now the 9.4 - net ton ( 8.5 metrical oodles ) behemoth is descend back toward Earth .
Though Tiangong-1 is expected to jar with Earth around April 1 , give or take a few solar day , according to a prediction by Aerospace , most of it will probably burn up in the standard pressure , Aerospace said . When this happens , multitude may see a undimmed light hurtling across the sky , likely resemble this meteoritethat disintegrate over Bolivia in 2016 .
As it reenters Earth ’s atmosphere , Tiangong-1 might demote up into debris that could score the reason or pee , the Aerospace Corporation noted . If this happened , the debris would smash into the region of Earth that the place passes over , seen below in yellow ( high chance ) , immature ( low chance ) and blue ( zero chance ) , Aerospace report . The " zero probability " expanse constitutes about one - third of Earth ’s full Earth’s surface area .
But even mass living within the scandalmongering bands should n’t sweat it . As observe , they ’re much more likely to win thePowerball jackpotthan they are to get hit by Tiangong-1 debris .
However , if any spell of Tiangong-1 were to crash into a person , it would n’t be the first time that part of a ballistic capsule hit someone . In 1997 , a small piece of a Delta II rocket strike Lottie Williams , a resident of Tulsa , Oklahoma , on the shoulder joint , according to NPR . Luckily , Williams was n’t injured , and she remains the only person on record to be hit with a piece of human - made infinite detritus .
That ’s not to say blank power train does n’t come crashing down to Earth . Over the retiring 50 years , more than 5,900 tons ( 5,400 metric long ton ) of space debris has hold out re - entry into Earth ’s atmosphere , but no incident — except for Williams ' — have been reported , Aerospace Corporation said .
Meanwhile , Space.com has reported , the Chinese place agency has already launch Tiangong-2 , whose name , like its herald ’s , means " heavenly castle " in Mandarin .
Original clause onLive Science .
